Morocco projects 41% surge in grain harvest to 4.4 mt amid improved rainfall
The projected harvest comprises 2.4 million tons of soft wheat, 1.06 million tons of durum wheat, and 0.95 million tons of barley.
MOROCCO – Morocco anticipates a significant rebound in its grain harvest for 2025, projecting a 41% increase to 4.4 million metric tons, buoyed by improved rainfall during March and April.
Agriculture Minister Ahmed El Bouari announced this optimistic forecast at a recent conference, attributing the expected boost to favorable weather conditions following a challenging start to the crop year.
The projected harvest comprises 2.4 million tons of soft wheat, 1.06 million tons of durum wheat, and 0.95 million tons of barley.
This marks a notable recovery from the previous year’s drought-stricken output of 3.1 million tons, which was a 43% decline from the year before.
Despite the improvement, the anticipated yield remains below Morocco’s average annual production of 7 million tons, highlighting the lingering effects of seven consecutive years of drought.
While rainfall has increased by 19% this year, it still falls 18% short of the average, underscoring ongoing water stress in the country. The Ministry of Agriculture projects a 5.1% increase in agricultural value added for the 2024-2025 season, a positive turnaround after a 4.8% contraction last year.
Despite the anticipated increase in domestic production, Morocco continues to rely heavily on imports to meet its annual wheat demand of approximately 10 million tons.
The USDA forecasts Morocco’s wheat imports for the 2025-26 marketing year at 7.3 million tons, a 42% increase over the 10-year average.
To support this, the Moroccan government has extended its wheat import subsidy program until December 31, 2025, ensuring continued importation due to insufficient local harvests.
In addition, Morocco has maintained its position as one of the European Union’s top wheat and barley importers in the 2024/2025 season despite a sharp decline in import volumes. By the end of March, the Kingdom imported nearly 2 million tons of soft wheat from the EU, ranking second among all EU soft wheat importers.
The recent rainfall has provided a much-needed boost to Morocco’s agricultural sector, but the country remains vulnerable to climate variability.
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